Public Opinion and the Political Future
The Republican movement & Nationalists
Among nationalists north and south, the Republican movement is seen as having kick started the peace process with the IRA s continuing military cessation and Sinn Fein s political work and initiatives throughout. Their on the ground work in the community is tireless and by far above the efforts of the other parties, as is their popularity among youthful voters and activists.
This is true despite British allegations of IRA activities that may be disturbing or confusing. Often, the British/Unionist establishment so overplays their hand that their efforts to smear the republican movement blow up in their faces or the charges soon prove blatantly untrue.
They are also seen as the only Nationalist party, north or south of Ireland, actually dedicated to and working for a United Ireland as its primary political objective.
Unionism
The support for the Good Friday Agreement among Unionists in the north is stronger than it appears; however, Unionist politicians are leading their people out of the peace process rather than into it. Still the majority of Protestants vote for pro-Agreement parties.
If there is one recipient in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize who more deserves to have it confiscated than David Trimble, who could it be?
Loyalism
Traditional Loyalism is anti-Catholic, paranoid, mired in the past, and provincial. Its political leadership s perception of democracy is idiosyncratic, believing democracy means total rule by the majority, regardless of the minority s human and civil rights.
Perhaps that explains their fierce paranoia of becoming the minority, even though they are one in Ireland.
The various Loyalist paramilitary groupings are adrift, violent, and confused. While they may see themselves as victims of current trends, they think very little of taking a Catholic life, attacking Nationalist districts, or harassing Catholic school children.
In real economic and social terms, however, the Unionist working class is not that much better off than the Catholics they persecute. Internal feuding is the result with brutal murders and turf wars over drugs and hegemony.
The upper and middle class, establishment Loyalists manage to stay morally above the dirty business on the ground at the sectarian flash points.
The People of the North
The devolved political institutions under the Good Friday Agreement are popular among the people in the north across the board.
All people regardless of political perspective or prejudice want the best health care and education for their families, notwithstanding that Barbara DeBrun and Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein may be the Ministers of Health and Education.
Unionists might not say it, but better them, who live in the north and know the universal realities of local life, than some faceless bureaucrat from Shropshire, England.
What Unionism really wants are the benefits of local government functions devolved from British rule that do not include sharing power with Catholics, or at least with Republicans. SF s position as majority nationalist party will take a while for Unionists and Loyalists to get their heads around.
The only cure for that is an up and operating assembly with all parties working together for the sake of their children and shared advantage. Trust does not precede working together, working together precedes trust, regardless how difficult that might be at first. If we had waited for trust between whites and blacks before effecting change, half of the US would still be under Jim Crow laws.
The UK
Poll after poll of UK citizens brings back the same result: an independent Ireland. The British Labour Party has had a united Ireland plank since the mid-1980s.
This is not due to a newly emerging progressive strain in the British political mind. It is based largely on economic considerations and they are tired of the intractable Irish mess. Besides, they aren’t really interested in Ireland.
The USA
In the USA, while there is some confusion and complacency, popular support for justice and peace in Ireland is still strong, with new people expressing interest in Ireland all the time.
Knowledgeable and active supporters in Congress have been through a tough time: from 9/11 preoccupation and other diversions. These political leaders are still there and we still need to support each other.
The Bush administration’s interest in Ireland is a downgrade from the previous administration. That is not only true for Ireland, but is an across-the-board foreign policy direction, even before 9/11. There has been appointed a Special Envoy, with Ambassador status, to the Irish peace process. The Envoy is highly placed within the Department of State; however, under the previous administration, the special envoy operated out of the White House. The two men who have held the position within the administration, first Dr. Richard Haass and currently Dr. Mitchell Reiss, have been active, accessible and open.
Several disturbing Bush administration initiatives are currently causing concern, including a new UK/US Extradition Treaty that could very well target Irish Americans and is highly controversial from a constitutional point of view; recent deportation cases affecting Irish American families are exceptionally unjust; and, the Spicer Contract concerning the awarding of a large Iraq security contract to the British Scots Guard Commander involved with the controversial release from prison and return to duty with promotions of two soldiers under his command convicted of the murder of north Belfast teenager Peter McBride.